2800. The Legislature finds and declares all of the following:
(a) The state's major metropolitan areas are subject to
potentially devastating large magnitude earthquakes and earth
scientists estimate that there is a high probability that one or more
large earthquakes will occur in California between now and the end
of the century.
(b) Loss of life and property damage resulting from a damaging
earthquake could be substantially reduced if there existed a reliable
short-term earthquake prediction system capable of providing public
warning of the size and location of a damaging earthquake within a
timeframe of a few weeks to a few hours.
(c) While earth scientists are not in full agreement about the
feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction, there is increasing
interest in the possibility that precursory geochemical and
geophysical phenomena can be identified within short timeframes and
that these precursory events can become the basis for timely and
reliable warnings of damaging earthquakes.
(d) California currently has a unique opportunity to assess the
feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction by joining the United
States Geological Survey in a study of the Parkfield section of the
San Andreas fault in Monterey County. This section has, between 1857
and 1966, produced almost identical earthquakes of about 5.6
magnitude on the average of every 22 years. Another earthquake
probably will occur in January of 1988, plus or minus four years. If
adequate instrumentation is in place by the time the earthquake
occurs, it may be possible to identify specific precursory phenomena.
However, at present, the instrumentation is not considered adequate
to fully monitor precursory events and, because of anticipated
federal budget cuts, additional instrumentation is unlikely to be
installed unless the state is able to participate in the Parkfield
study. State participation would also allow the United States
Geological Survey to share its data from Parkfield and permit the
state to independently analyze and evaluate this data specifically
for earthquake prediction and response purposes.
(e) If precursory earthquake phenomena are identified as a result
of the Parkfield study, there is a need to assess the feasibility of
establishing a statewide earthquake prediction system and to develop
a short-term response plan which, among other things, would include
development of procedures for verifying the predicted event and
guidelines for taking state action in response to anomalous
precursory phenomena.
2801. As used in this chapter:
(a) "Long-term prediction" means a prediction of an earthquake
that is expected to occur within a few years up to a few decades.
(b) "Intermediate-term prediction" means a prediction of an
earthquake that is expected to occur within a period of a few weeks
to a few years.
(c) "Short-term prediction" means a prediction of an earthquake
that is expected to occur within a few hours to a few weeks.
(d) "Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system" means a
dense cluster of instruments along the Parkfield section of the San
Andreas fault which monitors earthquake activity, local distortion of
the Earth's crust, strain levels, creep adjustments along the fault,
and other phenomena which may be useful in making a short-term
earthquake prediction.
(e) "Parkfield characteristic earthquake" means an earthquake that
has, among other qualities, a magnitude between 5.5 and 6.0 on the
Richter scale, and occurs on a location somewhere along the 15-mile
section of the San Andreas fault that is centered in the City of
Parkfield.
2802. (a) The department shall develop jointly with the United
States Geological Survey a prototype earthquake prediction system
along the central San Andreas fault near the City of Parkfield.
(b) The system shall include a dense cluster of seismic and
crustal deformation instrumentation capable of monitoring geophysical
and geochemical phenomena associated with earthquakes in the region.
These data shall be analyzed continuously to determine if precursory
anomalies can be identified with sufficient certainty to make a
short-term prediction. The department shall not duplicate any of the
ongoing efforts of the United States Geological Survey or any public
or private college or university in the development of this system.
(c) In meeting its obligations under this chapter, the department
shall develop, in cooperation with the United States Geological
Survey, a plan for completion of the Parkfield instrumentation
network. The plan shall provide for all of the following:
(1) Augmentation of monitoring instruments with the goal of
detecting precursors of the Parkfield characteristic earthquake.
(2) Operation by the department of a remote data review station in
Sacramento which will provide state scientists with data from the
Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system and other data, as
required, to advise the California Emergency Management Agency of the
occurrence of precursors and verification of the predicted event.
(3) Advising the United States Geological Survey, the California
Emergency Management Agency, the Seismic Safety Commission, and the
California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, regarding the
department's review of Parkfield data.
(d) On January 1, 1987, the department shall issue a progress
report to the Governor, the Legislature, and the Seismic Safety
Commission. An annual progress report shall be made each year
thereafter. The project shall terminate on January 1, 1992, unless
extended by statute.
2803. (a) Concurrently with the development of the Parkfield
prototype earthquake prediction system, the California Emergency
Management Agency, in consultation with the California Earthquake
Prediction Evaluation Council, shall develop a comprehensive
emergency response plan for short-term earthquake predictions. The
plan shall include all of the following:
(1) A method of peer review involving the California Earthquake
Prediction Evaluation Council to evaluate the validity of short-term
earthquake predictions and to develop guidelines for initiating state
action in response to anomalous geochemical and geophysical
phenomena.
(2) A means of rapidly activating governmental response to a
predicted event.
(3) Plans for mitigating earthquake losses to vulnerable
populations, including, but not limited to, drawdown of impoundment
levels behind dams, positioning of emergency equipment in safe areas,
and mobilization of firefighting, law enforcement, rescue, and
medical personnel.
(4) A public warning system.
(5) Strategies for dealing with earthquake predictions that fail
to occur (false alarms) and the failure of an earthquake prediction
system to forecast a damaging event.
(b) The California Emergency Management Agency shall consult with
the department, the Seismic Safety Commission, the United States
Geological Survey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the
development of the plan.
2804. The department and the Seismic Safety Commission may solicit
and receive gifts and grants from other public and private agencies
for the state's share of costs under this chapter.
2800. The Legislature finds and declares all of the following:
(a) The state's major metropolitan areas are subject to
potentially devastating large magnitude earthquakes and earth
scientists estimate that there is a high probability that one or more
large earthquakes will occur in California between now and the end
of the century.
(b) Loss of life and property damage resulting from a damaging
earthquake could be substantially reduced if there existed a reliable
short-term earthquake prediction system capable of providing public
warning of the size and location of a damaging earthquake within a
timeframe of a few weeks to a few hours.
(c) While earth scientists are not in full agreement about the
feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction, there is increasing
interest in the possibility that precursory geochemical and
geophysical phenomena can be identified within short timeframes and
that these precursory events can become the basis for timely and
reliable warnings of damaging earthquakes.
(d) California currently has a unique opportunity to assess the
feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction by joining the United
States Geological Survey in a study of the Parkfield section of the
San Andreas fault in Monterey County. This section has, between 1857
and 1966, produced almost identical earthquakes of about 5.6
magnitude on the average of every 22 years. Another earthquake
probably will occur in January of 1988, plus or minus four years. If
adequate instrumentation is in place by the time the earthquake
occurs, it may be possible to identify specific precursory phenomena.
However, at present, the instrumentation is not considered adequate
to fully monitor precursory events and, because of anticipated
federal budget cuts, additional instrumentation is unlikely to be
installed unless the state is able to participate in the Parkfield
study. State participation would also allow the United States
Geological Survey to share its data from Parkfield and permit the
state to independently analyze and evaluate this data specifically
for earthquake prediction and response purposes.
(e) If precursory earthquake phenomena are identified as a result
of the Parkfield study, there is a need to assess the feasibility of
establishing a statewide earthquake prediction system and to develop
a short-term response plan which, among other things, would include
development of procedures for verifying the predicted event and
guidelines for taking state action in response to anomalous
precursory phenomena.
2801. As used in this chapter:
(a) "Long-term prediction" means a prediction of an earthquake
that is expected to occur within a few years up to a few decades.
(b) "Intermediate-term prediction" means a prediction of an
earthquake that is expected to occur within a period of a few weeks
to a few years.
(c) "Short-term prediction" means a prediction of an earthquake
that is expected to occur within a few hours to a few weeks.
(d) "Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system" means a
dense cluster of instruments along the Parkfield section of the San
Andreas fault which monitors earthquake activity, local distortion of
the Earth's crust, strain levels, creep adjustments along the fault,
and other phenomena which may be useful in making a short-term
earthquake prediction.
(e) "Parkfield characteristic earthquake" means an earthquake that
has, among other qualities, a magnitude between 5.5 and 6.0 on the
Richter scale, and occurs on a location somewhere along the 15-mile
section of the San Andreas fault that is centered in the City of
Parkfield.
2802. (a) The department shall develop jointly with the United
States Geological Survey a prototype earthquake prediction system
along the central San Andreas fault near the City of Parkfield.
(b) The system shall include a dense cluster of seismic and
crustal deformation instrumentation capable of monitoring geophysical
and geochemical phenomena associated with earthquakes in the region.
These data shall be analyzed continuously to determine if precursory
anomalies can be identified with sufficient certainty to make a
short-term prediction. The department shall not duplicate any of the
ongoing efforts of the United States Geological Survey or any public
or private college or university in the development of this system.
(c) In meeting its obligations under this chapter, the department
shall develop, in cooperation with the United States Geological
Survey, a plan for completion of the Parkfield instrumentation
network. The plan shall provide for all of the following:
(1) Augmentation of monitoring instruments with the goal of
detecting precursors of the Parkfield characteristic earthquake.
(2) Operation by the department of a remote data review station in
Sacramento which will provide state scientists with data from the
Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system and other data, as
required, to advise the California Emergency Management Agency of the
occurrence of precursors and verification of the predicted event.
(3) Advising the United States Geological Survey, the California
Emergency Management Agency, the Seismic Safety Commission, and the
California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, regarding the
department's review of Parkfield data.
(d) On January 1, 1987, the department shall issue a progress
report to the Governor, the Legislature, and the Seismic Safety
Commission. An annual progress report shall be made each year
thereafter. The project shall terminate on January 1, 1992, unless
extended by statute.
2803. (a) Concurrently with the development of the Parkfield
prototype earthquake prediction system, the California Emergency
Management Agency, in consultation with the California Earthquake
Prediction Evaluation Council, shall develop a comprehensive
emergency response plan for short-term earthquake predictions. The
plan shall include all of the following:
(1) A method of peer review involving the California Earthquake
Prediction Evaluation Council to evaluate the validity of short-term
earthquake predictions and to develop guidelines for initiating state
action in response to anomalous geochemical and geophysical
phenomena.
(2) A means of rapidly activating governmental response to a
predicted event.
(3) Plans for mitigating earthquake losses to vulnerable
populations, including, but not limited to, drawdown of impoundment
levels behind dams, positioning of emergency equipment in safe areas,
and mobilization of firefighting, law enforcement, rescue, and
medical personnel.
(4) A public warning system.
(5) Strategies for dealing with earthquake predictions that fail
to occur (false alarms) and the failure of an earthquake prediction
system to forecast a damaging event.
(b) The California Emergency Management Agency shall consult with
the department, the Seismic Safety Commission, the United States
Geological Survey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the
development of the plan.
2804. The department and the Seismic Safety Commission may solicit
and receive gifts and grants from other public and private agencies
for the state's share of costs under this chapter.
2800. The Legislature finds and declares all of the following:
(a) The state's major metropolitan areas are subject to
potentially devastating large magnitude earthquakes and earth
scientists estimate that there is a high probability that one or more
large earthquakes will occur in California between now and the end
of the century.
(b) Loss of life and property damage resulting from a damaging
earthquake could be substantially reduced if there existed a reliable
short-term earthquake prediction system capable of providing public
warning of the size and location of a damaging earthquake within a
timeframe of a few weeks to a few hours.
(c) While earth scientists are not in full agreement about the
feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction, there is increasing
interest in the possibility that precursory geochemical and
geophysical phenomena can be identified within short timeframes and
that these precursory events can become the basis for timely and
reliable warnings of damaging earthquakes.
(d) California currently has a unique opportunity to assess the
feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction by joining the United
States Geological Survey in a study of the Parkfield section of the
San Andreas fault in Monterey County. This section has, between 1857
and 1966, produced almost identical earthquakes of about 5.6
magnitude on the average of every 22 years. Another earthquake
probably will occur in January of 1988, plus or minus four years. If
adequate instrumentation is in place by the time the earthquake
occurs, it may be possible to identify specific precursory phenomena.
However, at present, the instrumentation is not considered adequate
to fully monitor precursory events and, because of anticipated
federal budget cuts, additional instrumentation is unlikely to be
installed unless the state is able to participate in the Parkfield
study. State participation would also allow the United States
Geological Survey to share its data from Parkfield and permit the
state to independently analyze and evaluate this data specifically
for earthquake prediction and response purposes.
(e) If precursory earthquake phenomena are identified as a result
of the Parkfield study, there is a need to assess the feasibility of
establishing a statewide earthquake prediction system and to develop
a short-term response plan which, among other things, would include
development of procedures for verifying the predicted event and
guidelines for taking state action in response to anomalous
precursory phenomena.
2801. As used in this chapter:
(a) "Long-term prediction" means a prediction of an earthquake
that is expected to occur within a few years up to a few decades.
(b) "Intermediate-term prediction" means a prediction of an
earthquake that is expected to occur within a period of a few weeks
to a few years.
(c) "Short-term prediction" means a prediction of an earthquake
that is expected to occur within a few hours to a few weeks.
(d) "Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system" means a
dense cluster of instruments along the Parkfield section of the San
Andreas fault which monitors earthquake activity, local distortion of
the Earth's crust, strain levels, creep adjustments along the fault,
and other phenomena which may be useful in making a short-term
earthquake prediction.
(e) "Parkfield characteristic earthquake" means an earthquake that
has, among other qualities, a magnitude between 5.5 and 6.0 on the
Richter scale, and occurs on a location somewhere along the 15-mile
section of the San Andreas fault that is centered in the City of
Parkfield.
2802. (a) The department shall develop jointly with the United
States Geological Survey a prototype earthquake prediction system
along the central San Andreas fault near the City of Parkfield.
(b) The system shall include a dense cluster of seismic and
crustal deformation instrumentation capable of monitoring geophysical
and geochemical phenomena associated with earthquakes in the region.
These data shall be analyzed continuously to determine if precursory
anomalies can be identified with sufficient certainty to make a
short-term prediction. The department shall not duplicate any of the
ongoing efforts of the United States Geological Survey or any public
or private college or university in the development of this system.
(c) In meeting its obligations under this chapter, the department
shall develop, in cooperation with the United States Geological
Survey, a plan for completion of the Parkfield instrumentation
network. The plan shall provide for all of the following:
(1) Augmentation of monitoring instruments with the goal of
detecting precursors of the Parkfield characteristic earthquake.
(2) Operation by the department of a remote data review station in
Sacramento which will provide state scientists with data from the
Parkfield prototype earthquake prediction system and other data, as
required, to advise the California Emergency Management Agency of the
occurrence of precursors and verification of the predicted event.
(3) Advising the United States Geological Survey, the California
Emergency Management Agency, the Seismic Safety Commission, and the
California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, regarding the
department's review of Parkfield data.
(d) On January 1, 1987, the department shall issue a progress
report to the Governor, the Legislature, and the Seismic Safety
Commission. An annual progress report shall be made each year
thereafter. The project shall terminate on January 1, 1992, unless
extended by statute.
2803. (a) Concurrently with the development of the Parkfield
prototype earthquake prediction system, the California Emergency
Management Agency, in consultation with the California Earthquake
Prediction Evaluation Council, shall develop a comprehensive
emergency response plan for short-term earthquake predictions. The
plan shall include all of the following:
(1) A method of peer review involving the California Earthquake
Prediction Evaluation Council to evaluate the validity of short-term
earthquake predictions and to develop guidelines for initiating state
action in response to anomalous geochemical and geophysical
phenomena.
(2) A means of rapidly activating governmental response to a
predicted event.
(3) Plans for mitigating earthquake losses to vulnerable
populations, including, but not limited to, drawdown of impoundment
levels behind dams, positioning of emergency equipment in safe areas,
and mobilization of firefighting, law enforcement, rescue, and
medical personnel.
(4) A public warning system.
(5) Strategies for dealing with earthquake predictions that fail
to occur (false alarms) and the failure of an earthquake prediction
system to forecast a damaging event.
(b) The California Emergency Management Agency shall consult with
the department, the Seismic Safety Commission, the United States
Geological Survey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the
development of the plan.
2804. The department and the Seismic Safety Commission may solicit
and receive gifts and grants from other public and private agencies
for the state's share of costs under this chapter.
